All-cause, cardiovascular disease and cancer mortality in the population of a large Italian area contaminated by perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances (1980-2018).

BACKGROUND: Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are associated with many adverse health conditions. Among the main effects is carcinogenicity in humans, which deserves to be further clarified. An evident association has been reported for kidney cancer and testicular cancer. In 2013, a large episode of surface, ground and drinking water contamination with PFAS was uncovered in three provinces of the Veneto Region (northern Italy) involving 30 municipalities and a population of about 150,000. We report on the temporal evolution of all-cause mortality and selected cause-specific mortality by calendar period and birth cohort in the local population between 1980 and 2018. METHODS: The Italian National Institute of Health pre-processed and made available anonymous data from the Italian National Institute of Statistics death certificate archives for residents of the provinces of Vicenza, Padua and Verona (males, n = 29,629; females, n = 29,518) who died between 1980 and 2018. Calendar period analysis was done by calculating standardised mortality ratios using the total population of the three provinces in the same calendar period as reference. The birth cohort analysis was performed using 20-84 years cumulative standardised mortality ratios. Exposure was defined as being resident in one of the 30 municipalities of the Red area, where the aqueduct supplying drinking water was fed by the contaminated groundwater. RESULTS: During the 34 years between 1985 (assumed as beginning date of water contamination) and 2018 (last year of availability of cause-specific mortality data), in the resident population of the Red area we observed 51,621 deaths vs. 47,731 expected (age- and sex-SMR: 108; 90% CI: 107-109). We found evidence of raised mortality from cardiovascular disease (in particular, heart diseases and ischemic heart disease) and malignant neoplastic diseases, including kidney cancer and testicular cancer. CONCLUSIONS: For the first time, an association of PFAS exposure with mortality from cardiovascular disease was formally demonstrated. The evidence regarding kidney cancer and testicular cancer is consistent with previously reported data.

[Endometriosis, a participatory study in the Serchio Valley (Tuscany Region, Central Italy): state of the art and perspectives]. / Endometriosi, uno studio partecipato nella Valle del Serchio: stato dell'arte e prospettive.

BACKGROUND: endometriosis is a chronic condition with a significant impact on women's health, featured by endometrial tissue outside the uterine cavity. A limited number of studies have been conducted in the general population, and the true prevalence of endometriosis is unknown for many areas of the country. OBJECTIVES: to better estimate the prevalence of endometriosis in three Italian regions (Friuli Venezia Giulia, Tuscany, Apulia) and to assess the relationship between endometriosis and environmental factors in three participating areas (Trieste, Barga, and Taranto), with a focus on Tuscany Region. DESIGN: implementing a specific epidemiological registry for endometriosis, aimed at estimating the incidence and prevalence data. The registry collected information from hospital discharge records and anatomopathological reports of women residing in the three considered regions, aged 15 years or older. Additionally, the analysis includes the assessment of the spatial distribution of endometriosis at both regional and municipal levels in the three study areas. Further research investigations in these areas involve a multilevel screening of a sample of women of childbearing age. Women who test positive in the initial screening (through a self-administered questionnaire) will have the opportunity to undergo a second level of screening, consisting of a gynecological examination, transvaginal ultrasound, a swab for vaginal microbiome analysis, and the collection of blood and urine samples to assess the presence of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) or heavy metals. The adopted scientific approach is based on post-normal science (PNS) concerning the extended peer community. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: women aged 15 years or older residing in the three regions. MAIN OUTCOMES MEASURES: estimating the incidence and prevalence of endometriosis based on data collected from the epidemiological registry. The analysis extends to assessing the spatial distribution of endometriosis at municipal levels in the three areas of interest. RESULTS: the preliminary results of the study allowed for the estimation of the spatial distribution of endometriosis incidence in Tuscany. In particular, it was found that there is variability within the region, with some coastal and North-Western areas showing values 20% higher than the regional average. Cities such as Pisa, Lucca, Livorno, Grosseto, Orbetello, and the Serchio Valley with Barga had a probability of excess risk of more than 90% compared to the regional average. CONCLUSIONS: the study is ongoing and requires the active participation of women living in the region to ensure the completeness and accuracy of the collected data. This research effort represents an important contribution to understanding endometriosis in Tuscany and its possible environmental causes.

Hospitalization-based epidemiology of systemic and cardiac amyloidosis in the Veneto Region, Italy.

AIM: Defining the epidemiology of systemic and cardiac amyloidosis (CA) is a contemporary challenge. The present study aimed to estimate incidence and time trends in amyloidosis-related hospitalizations (AH) in Veneto Region (5 million inhabitants, Northeastern Italy). METHODS: International Classification of Diseases (ICD-9) codes were used to identify AH in Veneto from 2010 to 2020. AH were defined as any hospitalization with a discharge summary reporting an ICD-9 code for systemic amyloidosis. Hospitalization for CA was defined as records with ICD-9 code for systemic amyloidosis and ICD-9 code for heart failure,cardiomyopathy or arrhythmia. Hospital/outpatient encounters for carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) surgeries also were extracted. AH incidence was estimated using a buffer of 5 years. RESULTS: In the time range 2015-2020, the incidence rate of AH was 23.5 cases per 106 (95% confidence interval, CI, 21.8; 25.3), mainly affecting patients>65 years (76.2%) and males (63.5%), with a progressively increasing trend (percent annual increase 17%, 95% CI 12; 22%). The 10 year prevalence of AH in 2020 was 124.5 per 106 (95% CI 114.9; 134.8). In 2020, annual hospitalized prevalent cases of CA were about 70% of all cases (159/228), mainly patients >65 years and males. Among patients with multiple CTS surgeries, a subsequent code for cardiac disease was found in 913 after a median of 3.9 years, more frequently in men than in women (463/6.526 7.1% versus 450/11.406 3.9%). CONCLUSIONS: In Veneto, we recorded a significantly increasing trend in the incidence of AH, with concordant increasing prevalence estimates.

Baseline and Longitudinal Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio as Prognostic Factor for Metastatic Colorectal Cancer: A Secondary Analysis of the ITACa Randomized Trial.

PURPOSE: We aimed to investigate the prognostic role of baseline and longitudinal levels of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) treated with chemotherapy + bevacizumab (CT + B) or chemotherapy only. Additionally, we investigated whether treatment outcomes were mediated by the longitudinal biomarker. METHODS: Data from an Italian randomized phase III trial were used. The main end point was progression-free survival (PFS). To address research questions, a series of joint models of longitudinal and survival data were specified, and the direct and indirect treatment effects were quantified. RESULTS: Data for 239 patients, 113 (47.3%) treated with CT + B and 126 (52.7%) with CT only, were included in the analyses. The effect of NLR seemed to be mediated by the longitudinal trajectory of the biomarker. Only in the patient subgroup treated with CT + B, the baseline NLR retained a direct effect on PFS. Regarding the effect of treatment on PFS, two scenarios were observed. In the subgroup of patients with low baseline, NLR bevacizumab showed a direct protective effect only (hazard ratio [HR], 0.66 [95% CI, 0.45 to 0.98]), whereas in the subgroup with high baseline NLR, there was evidence for an adverse direct effect (HR, 1.63 [95% CI, 1.03 to 2.57]) and a protective indirect-which is mediated by the longitudinal biomarker-effect (HR, 0.71 [95% CI, 0.55 to 0.90]). CONCLUSION: In our study, inflammatory indexes collected longitudinally showed a significant adverse prognostic role, thus suggesting the collection and use of such data for better clinical decision making. In the specific setting, we considered this is particularly important as the treatment effect seemed to be modified by both the baseline and longitudinal inflammation statuses. However, further research is needed to understand the possible factors underlying these results.

The descriptive epidemiology of melanoma in Italy has changed - for the better.

A recent research project using data from a total of 40 cancer registries has provided new epidemiologic insights into the results of efforts for melanoma control in Italy between the 1990s and the last decade. In this article, the authors present a summary and a commentary of their findings. Incidence increased significantly throughout the study period in both sexes. However, the rates showed a stabilization or a decrease in men and women aged below 35 years. The risk of disease increased for successive cohorts born until 1973 (women) and 1975 (men) while subsequently tending to decline. The trend towards decreasing tumor thickness and increasing survival has continued, but a novel favorable prognostic factor has emerged since 2013 for patients - particularly for males - with thick melanoma, most likely represented by molecular targeted therapies and immune checkpoint inhibitors. Due to this, the survival gap between males and females has been filled out. In the meanwhile, and despite the incidence increase, dermatologists have not lowered their threshold to perform skin biopsy. Skin biopsy rate has increased because of the increasingly greater volume of dermatologic office visits, but the proportion of skin biopsies out of dermatologic office visits has remained constant. In summary, an important breakthrough in melanoma control in Italy has taken place. Effective interventions have been implemented across the full scope of care, which involve many large local populations - virtually the whole national population. The strategies adopted during the last three decades represent a valuable basis for further steps ahead in melanoma control in Italy.

Epidemiologic transition of lung cancer mortality in Italy by sex, province of residence and birth cohort (1920-1929 to 1960-1969).

Space-time analysis of mortality risk is useful to evaluate the epidemiologic transitions at the subnational level. In our study, we analysed the death certificate records for lung cancer in Italy in 1995-2016, obtained from the Italian National Institute of Statistics. Our objective was to investigate the spatial-temporal evolution of lung cancer mortality by sex and province of residence (n = 107) using the birth cohort as relevant time axis. We built Bayesian space-time models with space-time interactions. Among males (n = 554 829), mortality peaked in the 1920-1929 cohort, followed by a generalised decline. Among females (n = 158 619), we found novel original evidence for a peak in the 1955-1964 cohort, equivalent to a 35-year delay, with a downward trend being observed thereafter. Over time, the documented north-south decreasing mortality gradient has been replaced by a west-east decreasing gradient. Naples has become the province at highest risk in Italy, both among males and females. This pattern is consistent with an epidemiologic transition of risk factors for lung cancer to the south-west of the country and raises concern, because 5-year age-standardised net survival from the disease in this geographic area is lower than in northern and central Italy. The variability of mortality rates among provinces has changed over time, with an increasing homogeneity for males and an opposite trend for females in the more recent birth cohorts. These unprecedented observations provide evidence for a profound spatio-temporal transition of lung cancer mortality in Italy.

Optogenetic manipulation of cardiac repolarization gradients using sub-threshold illumination.

Introduction: Mechanisms underlying cardiac arrhythmias are typically driven by abnormalities in cardiac conduction and/or heterogeneities in repolarization time (RT) across the heart. While conduction slowing can be caused by either electrophysiological defects or physical blockade in cardiac tissue, RT heterogeneities are mainly related to action potential (AP) prolongation or abbreviation in specific areas of the heart. Importantly, the size of the area with altered RT and the difference between the short RT and long RT (RT gradient) have been identified as critical determinators of arrhythmogenicity. However, current experimental methods for manipulating RT gradient rely on the use of ion channel inhibitors, which lack spatial and temporal specificity and are commonly only partially reversible. Therefore, the conditions facilitating sustained arrhythmia upon the presence of RT heterogeneities and/or defects in cardiac conduction remain to be elucidated. Methods: We here employ an approach based on optogenetic stimulation in a low-intensity fashion (sub-threshold illumination), to selectively manipulate cardiac electrical activity in defined areas of the heart. Results: As previously described, subthreshold illumination is a robust tool able to prolong action potentials (AP), decrease upstroke velocity as well as slow cardiac conduction, in a fully reversible manner. By applying a patterned sub-threshold illumination in intact mouse hearts constitutively expressing the light-gated ion channel channelrhodopsin-2 (ChR2), we optically manipulate RT gradients and cardiac conduction across the heart in a spatially selective manner. Moreover, in a proof-of-concept assessment we found that in the presence of patterned sub-threshold illumination, mouse hearts were more susceptible to arrhythmias. Hence, this optogenetic-based approach may be able to mimic conduction slowing and RT heterogeneities present in pathophysiological conditions.

Trends in Net Survival from Vulvar Squamous Cell Carcinoma in Italy (1990-2015).

(1) Objective: In many Western countries, survival from vulvar squamous cell carcinoma (VSCC) has been stagnating for decades or has increased insufficiently from a clinical perspective. In Italy, previous studies on cancer survival have not taken vulvar cancer into consideration or have pooled patients with vulvar and vaginal cancer. To bridge this knowledge gap, we report the trend in survival from vulvar cancer between 1990 and 2015. (2) Methods: Thirty-eight local cancer registries covering 49% of the national female population contributed the records of 6274 patients. Study endpoints included 1- and 2-year net survival (NS) calculated using the Pohar-Perme estimator and 5-year NS conditional on having survived two years (5|2-year CNS). The significance of survival trends was assessed with the Wald test on the coefficient of the period of diagnosis, entered as a continuous regressor in a Poisson regression model. (3) Results: The median patient age was stable at 76 years. One-year NS decreased from 83.9% in 1990-2001 to 81.9% in 2009-2015 and 2-year NS from 72.2% to 70.5%. Five|2-year CNS increased from 85.7% to 86.7%. These trends were not significant. In the age stratum 70-79 years, a weakly significant decrease in 2-year NS from 71.4% to 65.7% occurred. Multivariate analysis adjusting for age group at diagnosis and geographic area showed an excess risk of death at 5|2-years, of borderline significance, in 2003-2015 versus 1990-2002. (4) Conclusions: One- and 2-year NS and 5|2-year CNS showed no improvements. Current strategies for VSCC control need to be revised both in Italy and at the global level.

[Methodological approaches to evaluate the over-time mortality in SENTIERI epidemiological surveillance system: a focus on cohort analyses]. / Approcci metodologici per valutare l'andamento della mortalità nel lungo periodo nel sistema di sorveglianza SENTIERI: focus sull'analisi di coorte.

The SENTIERI Project analyses the health profile of the populations residing in Italian national priority contaminated sites in specific calendar periods using a cross-sectional approach. An aspect that has not been evaluated so far is the analysis over a long period, for understanding the changes in health profiles over time and studying them also in function of the changes occurred in the territories. This article studies temporal trends by birth cohort and calendar period for overall mortality and lung cancer mortality from 1980 to 2018, separately for men and women, for three sites: Priolo (Sicily Region, Southern Italy), Pitelli (Liguria Region, Northern Italy), and Terni-Papigno (Umbria Region, Central Italy). A method for selecting the temporal model that best fits the data is then proposed. General mortality presents complex temporal profiles when considering cumulative risks, and usually the most important temporal axis is the birth cohort for cumulative SMRs (i.e., after adjusting for trends in the reference population). For lung cancer, the most important time axis is the birth cohort and the age-cohort model is the most appropriate, in particular for men of Priolo and Terni.

A multicenter prospective study validated a nomogram to predict individual risk of dependence in ambulation after rehabilitation.

OBJECTIVES: To develop the Functional Risk Index for Dependence in Ambulation (FRIDA) score, a nomogram to predict individual risk of dependence in ambulation at discharge from postacute rehabilitation and validate its performance temporally and spatially. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We analyzed the database of a multicenter prospective observational quality cohort study conducted from January 2012 to March 2016, including data from 8,796 consecutive inpatients who underwent rehabilitation after stroke, hip fracture, lower limb joint replacement, debility, and other neurologic, orthopedic, or miscellaneous conditions. RESULTS: A total of 3,026 patients (34.4%) were discharged dependent in ambulation. In the training set of 5,162 patients (58.7%), Lasso-regression selected advanced age, premorbid disability, and eight indicators of medical and functional adverse syndromes at baseline to establish the FRIDA score. At the temporal validation obtained on an external set of 3,234 patients (41.3%), meta-analyses showed that the FRIDA score had good and homogeneous discrimination (summary area under the curve 0.841, 95% confidence interval = 0.826-0.855, I2 = 0.00%) combined with accurate calibration (summary Log O/E ratio 0.017, 95% confidence interval -0.155 to 0.190). These performances remained stable at spatial validation obtained on 3,626 patients, with substantial heterogeneity of estimates across nine facilities. Decision curve analyses showed that a FRIDA score-supported strategy far outperformed the usual "treat all" approach in each impairment categories. CONCLUSION: The FRIDA score is a new clinically useful tool to predict an individual risk for dependence in ambulation at rehabilitation discharge in many different disabilities, and may also reflect well the case-mix composition of the rehabilitation facilities.

Patient presentation, skin biopsy utilization and cutaneous malignant melanoma incidence and mortality in northern Italy: Trends and correlations.

BACKGROUND: The global increase in incidence of cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) occurring in the past decades has been partly attributed to increased diagnostic scrutiny of early lesions, with a potential phenomenon of overdiagnosis. The reported positive linear relation between skin biopsy rate and incidence of early CMM is compatible with this hypothesis. OBJECTIVES: We explored the ecological association between the trends in annual dermatologic office visit rates, skin biopsy rates, incidence rates of in situ and invasive CMM by tumour thickness category, and CMM mortality rates in the Emilia-Romagna Region (northern Italy). METHODS: Four cancer registries covering a population of 2,696,000 provided CMM incidence data for the years 2003-2017. Dermatologic office visit rates and skin biopsy rates were calculated using the Regional outpatient care database. All rates were age-standardized. Trends were described with the estimated average annual per cent change (EAAPC). Correlations were tested with the Spearman correlation coefficient. RESULTS: Incidence increased significantly. The increase was steeper for in situ CMM (EAAPC: men, 10.2; women, 6.9) followed by CMM <0.8 mm thick (9.1; 5.2), but the rates grew significantly for most subgroups of CMMs ≥0.8 mm thick. Mortality decreased significantly among women (-2.3) and non-significantly among men. For dermatologic office visit rate and skin biopsy rate the EAAPC were, respectively, 1.7 and 1.8 for men and 1.2 and 0.9 for women. Annual dermatologic office visit rate correlated with skin biopsy rate in both sexes. However, the proportion of skin biopsies out of dermatologic office visits was constant across the years (range: men, 0.182-0.216; women, 0.157-0.191). CONCLUSIONS: In Italy, the increasing CMM incidence trend is, at least in part, genuine. Overdiagnosis-if any-is due to an increased patient presentation at dermatologic offices and not to a lower dermatologic threshold to perform biopsy.

Applying competing risks analysis to recurrences of primary breast cancer.

INTRODUCTION: in time-to-event analysis, competing risks are observed when a subject is at risk of multiple types of events. A competing risk is an event that prevents the event of interest from happening or modifies its chance to occur. OBJECTIVES: the purposes of this article are to provide an overview of competing risks analysis and to illustrate its application to the follow-up of breast cancer patients in order to estimate the risk of disease recurrence. DESIGN: cohort study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: population-based random sample of patients with stage I-III primary female breast cancer diagnosed in 2000-2013, aged 15 years or older, resident in the Forlì health care district (northern Italy), treated surgically and with available information regarding disease laterality. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: subhazard ratio, hazard ratio and cumulative incidence function for loco-regional recurrences and distant metastasis during 10 years of follow-up. METHODS: breast cancer recurrences were evaluated taking into account death from any cause and occurrence of a second primary breast cancer as competing risks. Recent developments in competing risks methodology were used. The results obtained were compared with those from the Cox regression model, in which the competing risks were not accounted for. CONCLUSIONS: estimating the risk of recurrence without accounting for the competing risks resulted in a divergence of the hazard/subhazard functions. Competing risks analysis is preferable when the statistical assumption of independence of end-points may be violated.

KETASER01 protocol: What went right and what went wrong.

OBJECTIVE: To discuss the results of the KETASER01 trial and the reasons for its failure, particularly in view of future studies. METHODS: KETASER01 is a multicenter, randomized, controlled, open-label, sequentially designed, non-profit Italian study that aimed to assess the efficacy of ketamine compared with conventional anesthetics in the treatment of refractory convulsive status epilepticus (RCSE) in children. RESULTS: During the 5-year recruitment phase, a total of 76 RCSEs treated with third-line therapy were observed in five of the 10 participating Centers; only 10 individuals (five for each study arm; five females, mean age 6.5 ± 6.3 years) were enrolled in the KETASER01 study. Two of the five patients (40%) in the experimental arm were successfully treated with ketamine and two of the five (40%) children in the control arm, where successfully treated with thiopental. In the remaining six (60%) enrolled patients, RCSE was not controlled by the randomized anesthetic(s). SIGNIFICANCE: The KETASER01 study was prematurely halted due to low eligibility of patients and no successful recruitment. No conclusions can be drawn regarding the objectives of the study. Here, we discuss the KETASER01 results and critically analyze the reasons for its failure in view of future trials.

[P-value and the probability of direction of effect]. / P-value e probabilità di direzione dell'effetto.

The p-value has been widely criticized in the scientific literature for its naive use in classifying results as 'significant' and 'non significant'. Much has been written about it; for example, see the American Statistical Association position statement of march 2016. To date, few alternative measures have been suggested and few changes were observed in the scientific practice regarding the use of p-value despite general agreement on the critics raised on it. In this paper, we use an alternative measure to p-value. It consists in the probability of the direction of the effect, that is the strength of empirical evidence in favour of the alternative directional hypothesis. In the context of scientific research, reporting the probability of the direction of the effect is easier to understand. Moreover, it focuses on the effect in the study rather than on the value under the null hypothesis, which sometimes has little meaning or has been used opportunistically. The proposal is not intended as an alternative to using the confidence interval, but as a probabilistic metric to be used instead of the p-value when we refer to particular hypotheses to be tested.

Mortality for Lung Cancer among PVC Baggers Employed in the Vinyl Chloride Industry.

Vinyl-chloride monomer (VCM) is classified as a known carcinogen of the liver; for lung cancer, some results suggest a potential association with polyvinyl chloride (PVC) dust. We evaluated the relationship between lung cancer mortality and exposure as PVC baggers in a cohort of workers involved in VCM production and polymerization in Porto Marghera (Venice, Italy) considering both employment status and smoking habits. The workers were studied between 1973 and 2017. A subset of them (848 over 1658) was interviewed in the 2000s to collect information about smoking habits and alcohol consumption. Missing values were imputed by the Multivariate Imputation by Chained Equations (MICE) algorithm. We calculated standardized mortality ratios (SMR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) using regional reference rates by task (never, ever, and exclusively baggers) and by smoking habits. Mortality rate ratios (MRR), adjusted for age, calendar time, time since first exposure, and smoking habits, were obtained via Poisson regression using Rubin's rule to combine results from imputed datasets calculating the fraction of information due to non-response. Lung cancer mortality was lower than the regional reference in the whole cohort (lung cancer SMR = 0.92; 95% CI 0.75-1.11). PVC baggers showed a 50% increase in lung cancer mortality compared to regional rates (SMR = 1.48; 95% CI 0.82-2.68). In the cohort analyses, a doubled risk of lung cancer mortality among PVC baggers was confirmed after adjustment for smoking and time-dependent covariates (MRR = 1.99, 95% CI 1.04-3.81). Exposure to PVC dust resulting from activity as bagger in a polymerization PVC plant was associated with an increase in lung cancer mortality risk after adjustment for smoking habits.

How a faecal immunochemical test screening programme changes annual colorectal cancer incidence rates: an Italian intention-to-screen study.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of a biennial faecal immunochemical test (FIT) screening programme in reducing annual colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence in its dynamic target population. METHODS: The target population included over 1,000,000 persons aged 50-69 living in a region of northern Italy. The average annual response rate to invitation was 51.4%. Each observed annual age-standardised (Europe) rate per 100,000 persons between 2005, the year of introduction of the programme, and 2016 was compared with each expected annual rate as estimated with age-period-cohort (men) and age-period (women) models. RESULTS: For both sexes, the rates observed in 1997-2004 and those expected in 2005-2016 were stable. Observed rates increased in 2005, peaked in 2006 (the first full year of screening), dropped significantly below the expected level in 2009, and continued to decrease until 2013 (the eighth full year), after which no further significant changes occurred. In the pooled years 2013-2016, the observed incidence rate per 100,000 persons was 102.2 [95% CI: 97.4, 107.1] for men, 75.6 [95% CI: 71.6, 79.7] for women and 88.4 [95% CI: 85.3, 91.5] for both sexes combined, with an observed:expected incidence rate ratio of 0.68 [95% CI: 0.65, 0.71], 0.79 [95% CI: 0.76, 0.82] and 0.72 [95% CI: 0.66, 0.81], respectively. DISCUSSION: The study provided multiple consistent proofs of a causal relationship between the introduction of screening and a stable 28% decrease in annual CRC incidence after eight years.

Health impact assessment should be based on correct methods.

The methodology of health impact assessment (HIA), originally proposed by WHO, is widely used to predict the potential health effects in a community living in a place in which a new project (e.g., an industrial plant) will be implemented. One of the key quantities to calculate the impact (i.e., the number of attributable cases) is the baseline (i.e., before the project implementation) rate of selected diseases in the community. In a recent paper on this journal, this methodology has been challenged. Specifically, the use of baseline rate has been questioned, proposing to use only the fraction of the baseline rate due to the exposures related to the project, and not the rate due to all risk factors for the disease. In this commentary, we argue that the proposal is logically and epidemiologically unsound, and devoid of scientific motivation. The conclusion that the traditional approach overestimates the health impact should be rejected as based on flawed assumptions. On the contrary, the proposal may produce a (seriously biased) underestimation of attributable cases.

Spatial Analysis of Shared Risk Factors between Pleural and Ovarian Cancer Mortality in Lombardy (Italy).

BACKGROUND: Asbestos exposure is a recognized risk factor for ovarian cancer and malignant mesothelioma. There are reports in the literature of geographical ecological associations between the occurrence of these two diseases. Our aim was to further explore this association by applying advanced Bayesian techniques to a large population (10 million people). METHODS: We specified a series of Bayesian hierarchical shared models to the bivariate spatial distribution of ovarian and pleural cancer mortality by municipality in the Lombardy Region (Italy) in 2000-2018. RESULTS: Pleural cancer showed a strongly clustered spatial distribution, while ovarian cancer showed a less structured spatial pattern. The most supported Bayesian models by predictive accuracy (widely applicable or Watanabe-Akaike information criterion, WAIC) provided evidence of a shared component between the two diseases. Among five municipalities with significant high standardized mortality ratios of ovarian cancer, three also had high pleural cancer rates. Wide uncertainty was present when addressing the risk of ovarian cancer associated with pleural cancer in areas at low background risk of ovarian cancer. CONCLUSIONS: We found evidence of a shared risk factor between ovarian and pleural cancer at the small geographical level. The impact of the shared risk factor can be relevant and can go unnoticed when the prevalence of other risk factors for ovarian cancer is low. Bayesian modelling provides useful information to tailor epidemiological surveillance.